The e-divide between fiction and non-fiction

Okay, I know that iWeek is over and that you've probably had enough of reading about Apple's iPad and e-books and e-book readers, but I have just one last post on the subject. Then I'll go back to writing about the stuff you all really come here for, which is porn.

I just wanted to expand on some of the posts I did last week regarding Amazon and its Kindle, the iPad, and self-publishing. A quick recap: I like Amazon's self-publishing program for the Kindle because it provides would-be authors with an outlet for their unpublished works that they would never otherwise realize. Apple and its iBooks scheme, where you buy publisher-supported e-books for the iPad, doesn't seem to encourage self-publishing at all. So, Amazon = good, Apple = bad.

One thing that occurred to me over the past week is that the world of self-published books is probably going to evolve in two different directions - I suspect there will be a big divide between fiction and non-fiction. Fiction books, generally speaking, don't require huge expenses from the author to write because, well, they're made up. This is why there are probably millions of half-finished novels in the world. The possibility of self-publishing via Amazon and then self-promoting through social media like Facebook and Twitter is going to motivate some writers to finish those half-finished books in their spare time, and get them out there. A lot of crap is going to be floated into the world this way, but the wisdom of crowds - which is often wrong but can sometimes do amazing things - will certainly steer us toward some gems. Some amazing writers are bound to be discovered this way. The Amazon system, I think, is going to work very well for fiction.

That's potentially bad news for publishers for two reasons. First, new writers are going to emerge and develop followings without ever having to depend on a publisher for anything. Second, established superstar fiction writers, i.e. the J.K. Rowlings and Dan Browns of the world, may start thinking that they don't want their publisher taking 80 to 90 per cent of their sales. Some will go into business for themselves, much like how Trent Reznor ditched his record label and started selling music through his own website (which unfortunately coincided with a full-on descent into suck.)

I don't think the same will hold true for non-fiction, though. Generally speaking, non-fiction requires a good deal of research - whether it's just traveling around, or the author having money to support themselves while they're digging up documents and interviewing people, which has a cost. Non-fiction writers still require some money up front to do their thing, so not many are going to risk blowing their own savings to go the self-publishing route in hopes of getting a return once their book is done and put on sale through Amazon. They'll still need the advances provided by publishers.

So in this Blade Runner-esque world of the future I'm predicting, will all fiction writers be self-publishing and reaping the full benefits of their efforts, free from the oppressive yoke of The Man, while publishers throw their support behind the heroic non-fiction writers? I don't imagine it'll be that black and white, but I can see things heading that way. (And yes, I do have a bias toward non-fiction writers for obvious reasons)

By the way, here's a thought: how long until someone launches a YouTube for book uploads - something like a BookTube or YouRead? Both of those domains look unused - anyone got a couple million bucks to loan me for a startup?